GrSaleToGrInv · Sales growth · Abarbanell and Bushee (1998)

Sales growth over inventory growth

Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window

Next quarter

2026Q4

1.85%

95% interval −0.79% to 4.66%

Next year

2026Q4–2027Q3

1.88%

95% interval −0.82% to 4.70%

Next five years

2026Q4–2031Q3

1.99%

95% interval −0.98% to 4.88%

Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+608% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Past performance, annualized

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	3.66%	8.57%	0.43	3.64
2020Q1–2024Q4	1.76%	12.92%	0.14	0.31
2024Q1–2024Q4	3.64%	12.92%	0.28	0.28
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.73%	5.00%	0.55	4.65
2020Q1–2024Q4	−3.58%	6.56%	−0.55	−1.22
2024Q1–2024Q4	0.97%	1.87%	0.51	0.51
1952Q3–2024Q4	3.24%	10.39%	0.31	2.65
2020Q1–2024Q4	2.71%	14.63%	0.19	0.41
2024Q1–2024Q4	−2.86%	14.93%	−0.19	−0.19
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.54%	7.01%	0.36	3.09
2020Q1–2024Q4	−8.79%	8.24%	−1.07	−2.39
2024Q1–2024Q4	−6.84%	3.73%	−1.84	−1.84

Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized

Window	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
2026Q4	0.25	0.01 – 0.52	0.02
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.24	<0.01 – 0.50	0.02
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.20	−0.02 – 0.46	0.04
2026Q4	−0.04	−0.37 – 0.42	0.63
2026Q4–2027Q3	−0.02	−0.33 – 0.41	0.60
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.03	−0.22 – 0.39	0.47
2026Q4	0.18	−0.08 – 0.45	0.09
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.18	−0.08 – 0.45	0.09
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.17	−0.07 – 0.44	0.10
2026Q4	−0.34	−0.71 – 0.19	0.91
2026Q4–2027Q3	−0.29	−0.62 – 0.20	0.89
2026Q4–2031Q3	−0.14	−0.40 – 0.23	0.80