GrLTNOA · Investment · Fairfield, Whisenant and Yohn (2003)

Growth in long term operating assets

Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window

Next quarter

2026Q4

0.60%

95% interval −3.71% to 3.58%

Next year

2026Q4–2027Q3

0.63%

95% interval −3.60% to 3.58%

Next five years

2026Q4–2031Q3

0.76%

95% interval −3.11% to 3.56%

Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+90% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Past performance, annualized

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	1.56%	8.33%	0.19	1.59
2020Q1–2024Q4	0.66%	10.78%	0.06	0.14
2024Q1–2024Q4	−9.99%	13.30%	−0.75	−0.75
1952Q3–2024Q4	1.66%	5.55%	0.30	2.55
2020Q1–2024Q4	−1.18%	4.83%	−0.24	−0.55
2024Q1–2024Q4	−7.71%	1.39%	−5.54	−5.54
1952Q3–2024Q4	1.47%	10.75%	0.14	1.17
2020Q1–2024Q4	−9.42%	17.21%	−0.55	−1.22
2024Q1–2024Q4	−36.09%	22.02%	−1.64	−1.64
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.65%	6.79%	0.39	3.33
2020Q1–2024Q4	−4.56%	4.76%	−0.96	−2.14
2024Q1–2024Q4	−2.47%	1.45%	−1.70	−1.70

Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized

Window	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
2026Q4	0.17	−0.06 – 0.39	0.07
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.17	−0.06 – 0.39	0.07
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.16	−0.06 – 0.39	0.07
2026Q4	0.09	−0.30 – 0.43	0.32
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.10	−0.26 – 0.42	0.30
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.12	−0.17 – 0.42	0.23
2026Q4	0.06	−0.35 – 0.33	0.32
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.06	−0.32 – 0.33	0.31
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.08	−0.23 – 0.33	0.28
2026Q4	0.07	−0.32 – 0.48	0.39
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.08	−0.28 – 0.47	0.37
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.11	−0.19 – 0.46	0.28