GrSaleToGrOverhead · Sales growth · Abarbanell and Bushee (1998)

Sales growth over overhead growth

Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window

Next quarter

2026Q4

1.36%

95% interval −1.68% to 4.43%

Next year

2026Q4–2027Q3

1.36%

95% interval −1.70% to 4.43%

Next five years

2026Q4–2031Q3

1.36%

95% interval −1.76% to 4.47%

Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+48% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Past performance, annualized

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	1.22%	9.50%	0.13	1.10
2020Q1–2024Q4	2.23%	12.73%	0.18	0.39
2024Q1–2024Q4	27.87%	5.13%	5.43	5.43
1952Q3–2024Q4	0.43%	6.20%	0.07	0.59
2020Q1–2024Q4	1.72%	10.14%	0.17	0.38
2024Q1–2024Q4	20.99%	8.87%	2.37	2.37
1952Q3–2024Q4	1.46%	13.60%	0.11	0.92
2020Q1–2024Q4	3.36%	23.06%	0.15	0.33
2024Q1–2024Q4	29.80%	13.19%	2.26	2.26
1952Q3–2024Q4	−0.23%	7.69%	−0.03	−0.25
2020Q1–2024Q4	−0.03%	14.49%	−<0.01	−<0.01
2024Q1–2024Q4	25.79%	8.07%	3.19	3.19

Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized

Window	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
2026Q4	0.13	−0.10 – 0.36	0.14
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.13	−0.10 – 0.36	0.14
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.12	−0.10 – 0.34	0.14
2026Q4	0.15	−0.13 – 0.57	0.17
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.14	−0.13 – 0.49	0.18
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.10	−0.14 – 0.34	0.21
2026Q4	0.10	−0.12 – 0.32	0.19
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.10	−0.12 – 0.32	0.19
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.10	−0.12 – 0.32	0.19
2026Q4	0.01	−0.23 – 0.31	0.49
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.01	−0.23 – 0.29	0.50
2026Q4–2031Q3	−<0.01	−0.23 – 0.23	0.52