AnalystRevision · Earnings forecast · Hawkins, Chamberlin, Daniel (1984)
EPS forecast revision
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1976Q2 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
6.24%
95% interval 2.59% to 9.44%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
6.12%
95% interval 2.43% to 9.42%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
5.64%
95% interval 1.69% to 9.34%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+1,080% since 1976Q2 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1976Q2–2024Q4 | 5.79% | 9.68% | 0.60 | 4.18 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 10.53% | 11.43% | 0.92 | 2.06 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 25.63% | 11.37% | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| 1976Q2–2024Q4 | 8.15% | 6.74% | 1.21 | 8.45 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 2.50% | 6.30% | 0.40 | 0.89 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 8.13% | 7.36% | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| 1976Q2–2024Q4 | 5.74% | 11.54% | 0.50 | 3.47 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 15.13% | 13.53% | 1.12 | 2.50 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 13.01% | 13.98% | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| 1976Q2–2024Q4 | 8.75% | 7.81% | 1.12 | 7.83 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 2.55% | 8.28% | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 11.97% | 8.84% | 1.35 | 1.35 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.56 | 0.29 – 0.85 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.55 | 0.28 – 0.81 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.50 | 0.24 – 0.77 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.53 | 0.30 – 0.79 | 0.00 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.47 | 0.26 – 0.72 | 0.00 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.33 | 0.14 – 0.57 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.55 | 0.23 – 0.83 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.50 | 0.19 – 0.77 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.37 | 0.10 – 0.63 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.51 | 0.27 – 0.79 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.46 | 0.24 – 0.73 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.33 | 0.13 – 0.59 | <0.01 |