AgeIPO · Other · Ritter (1991)
IPO and age
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1981Q2 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
10.72%
95% interval 2.42% to 19.64%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
10.58%
95% interval 2.14% to 19.53%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
10.17%
95% interval 1.01% to 19.42%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+4,582% since 1981Q2 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981Q2–2024Q4 | 13.51% | 23.55% | 0.57 | 3.80 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 10.70% | 27.62% | 0.39 | 0.87 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 50.65% | 8.47% | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| 1981Q2–2024Q4 | 11.14% | 20.29% | 0.55 | 3.63 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 9.89% | 29.79% | 0.33 | 0.74 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 42.38% | 13.60% | 3.12 | 3.12 |
| 1981Q2–2024Q4 | 12.90% | 28.77% | 0.45 | 2.97 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −6.64% | 32.54% | −0.20 | −0.46 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 49.52% | 6.92% | 7.15 | 7.15 |
| 1981Q2–2024Q4 | 13.16% | 24.36% | 0.54 | 3.57 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −0.63% | 30.31% | −0.02 | −0.05 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 27.15% | 23.96% | 1.13 | 1.13 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.53 | 0.24 – 0.84 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.51 | 0.23 – 0.79 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.46 | 0.18 – 0.75 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.52 | 0.21 – 0.84 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.49 | 0.20 – 0.78 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.43 | 0.15 – 0.72 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.37 | 0.08 – 0.69 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.35 | 0.07 – 0.64 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.30 | 0.03 – 0.60 | 0.02 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.42 | 0.13 – 0.73 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.40 | 0.11 – 0.70 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.35 | 0.06 – 0.68 | 0.01 |