hire · Investment alt · Bazdresch, Belo and Lin (2014)
Employment growth
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1965Q3 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
3.46%
95% interval 0.34% to 6.63%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
3.45%
95% interval 0.31% to 6.63%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
3.39%
95% interval 0.17% to 6.64%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+466% since 1965Q3 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1965Q3–2024Q4 | 2.14% | 11.10% | 0.19 | 1.49 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −2.38% | 19.99% | −0.12 | −0.27 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −3.85% | 12.13% | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 1965Q3–2024Q4 | 5.81% | 8.94% | 0.65 | 5.01 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 8.46% | 11.48% | 0.74 | 1.65 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −0.40% | 4.69% | −0.09 | −0.09 |
| 1965Q3–2024Q4 | 3.72% | 12.79% | 0.29 | 2.24 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 8.54% | 15.44% | 0.55 | 1.24 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 13.40% | 4.80% | 2.79 | 2.79 |
| 1965Q3–2024Q4 | 8.63% | 11.63% | 0.74 | 5.73 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 11.92% | 14.39% | 0.83 | 1.85 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 0.69% | 6.71% | 0.10 | 0.10 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.12 | −0.18 – 0.39 | 0.20 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.12 | −0.17 – 0.39 | 0.19 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.13 | −0.14 – 0.39 | 0.18 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.49 | 0.20 – 0.78 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.48 | 0.18 – 0.78 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.44 | 0.12 – 0.77 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.27 | 0.03 – 0.52 | 0.02 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.27 | 0.02 – 0.51 | 0.02 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.25 | 0.01 – 0.49 | 0.02 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.51 | 0.21 – 0.83 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.49 | 0.18 – 0.82 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.43 | 0.11 – 0.80 | <0.01 |