TotalAccruals · Investment alt · Richardson et al. (2005)

Total accruals

Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window

Next quarter

2026Q4

−3.62%

95% interval −12.77% to 2.35%

Next year

2026Q4–2027Q3

−3.41%

95% interval −12.30% to 2.35%

Next five years

2026Q4–2031Q3

−2.64%

95% interval −10.51% to 2.42%

Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.

Cumulative market-adjusted return

−53% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Past performance, annualized

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.32%	9.20%	0.25	2.14
2020Q1–2024Q4	−2.42%	14.25%	−0.17	−0.38
2024Q1–2024Q4	−28.11%	16.86%	−1.67	−1.67
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.78%	10.11%	0.27	2.34
2020Q1–2024Q4	1.91%	14.04%	0.14	0.30
2024Q1–2024Q4	−7.17%	14.74%	−0.49	−0.49
1952Q3–2024Q4	−0.09%	13.97%	−0.01	−0.06
2020Q1–2024Q4	−15.71%	21.42%	−0.73	−1.64
2024Q1–2024Q4	−58.94%	14.36%	−4.10	−4.10
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.81%	12.88%	0.22	1.86
2020Q1–2024Q4	5.31%	18.70%	0.28	0.63
2024Q1–2024Q4	−13.34%	22.53%	−0.59	−0.59

Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized

Window	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
2026Q4	0.12	−0.29 – 0.42	0.23
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.12	−0.25 – 0.42	0.22
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.14	−0.17 – 0.42	0.18
2026Q4	0.17	−0.16 – 0.44	0.15
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.17	−0.14 – 0.44	0.14
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.17	−0.10 – 0.44	0.11
2026Q4	−0.26	−0.93 – 0.17	0.81
2026Q4–2027Q3	−0.23	−0.80 – 0.17	0.80
2026Q4–2031Q3	−0.14	−0.51 – 0.17	0.77
2026Q4	0.17	−0.10 – 0.41	0.10
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.17	−0.09 – 0.41	0.10
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.17	−0.08 – 0.41	0.09