NumEarnIncrease · Earnings growth · Loh and Warachka (2012)
Earnings streak length
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1963Q4 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
2.24%
95% interval 0.49% to 3.98%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
2.24%
95% interval 0.47% to 3.99%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
2.23%
95% interval 0.37% to 4.03%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+321% since 1963Q4 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1964Q1–2024Q4 | 2.56% | 6.07% | 0.42 | 3.29 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 3.13% | 10.30% | 0.30 | 0.68 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 9.99% | 11.36% | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| 1964Q1–2024Q4 | 6.34% | 4.86% | 1.31 | 10.20 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 7.21% | 7.71% | 0.94 | 2.09 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 10.33% | 1.93% | 5.35 | 5.35 |
| 1963Q4–2024Q4 | 2.61% | 7.21% | 0.36 | 2.84 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 1.38% | 11.80% | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 10.51% | 12.18% | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| 1963Q4–2024Q4 | 5.85% | 5.42% | 1.08 | 8.44 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 7.42% | 8.79% | 0.84 | 1.89 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 15.52% | 3.74% | 4.16 | 4.16 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.38 | 0.14 – 0.62 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.37 | 0.14 – 0.62 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.36 | 0.11 – 0.61 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 1.10 | 0.86 – 1.35 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 1.02 | 0.78 – 1.29 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.78 | 0.49 – 1.24 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.31 | 0.07 – 0.55 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.31 | 0.06 – 0.55 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.29 | 0.04 – 0.55 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 1.02 | 0.75 – 1.30 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.97 | 0.72 – 1.20 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.82 | 0.53 – 1.15 | <0.01 |