MeanRankRevGrowth · Sales growth · Lakonishok, Shleifer, Vishny (1994)
Revenue Growth Rank
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1957Q3 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
2.51%
95% interval −0.67% to 5.75%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
2.48%
95% interval −0.79% to 5.81%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
2.38%
95% interval −1.29% to 6.01%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+325% since 1957Q3 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957Q3–2024Q4 | 3.71% | 10.08% | 0.37 | 3.02 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 4.46% | 8.99% | 0.50 | 1.11 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 14.85% | 7.67% | 1.94 | 1.94 |
| 1957Q3–2024Q4 | 3.36% | 7.68% | 0.44 | 3.59 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 3.50% | 7.84% | 0.45 | 1.00 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 17.36% | 9.28% | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| 1957Q3–2024Q4 | 2.98% | 12.93% | 0.23 | 1.89 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 1.29% | 8.69% | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 7.17% | 9.13% | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| 1957Q3–2024Q4 | 4.66% | 10.45% | 0.45 | 3.66 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 9.55% | 12.54% | 0.76 | 1.70 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 31.80% | 18.78% | 1.69 | 1.69 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.35 | 0.12 – 0.60 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.34 | 0.11 – 0.58 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.32 | 0.09 – 0.55 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.41 | 0.17 – 0.66 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.39 | 0.15 – 0.62 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.33 | 0.10 – 0.57 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.19 | −0.05 – 0.45 | 0.06 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.18 | −0.06 – 0.42 | 0.07 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.14 | −0.07 – 0.37 | 0.10 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.47 | 0.21 – 0.77 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.45 | 0.20 – 0.70 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.38 | 0.16 – 0.60 | <0.01 |