InvGrowth · Profitability · Belo and Lin (2012)
Inventory Growth
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
5.25%
95% interval 1.80% to 8.70%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
5.24%
95% interval 1.74% to 8.72%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
5.21%
95% interval 1.40% to 8.85%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+3,616% since 1952Q3 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1952Q3–2024Q4 | 4.72% | 10.80% | 0.44 | 3.72 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 0.96% | 17.07% | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −5.71% | 6.98% | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| 1952Q3–2024Q4 | 6.99% | 7.45% | 0.94 | 7.99 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 7.90% | 9.22% | 0.86 | 1.92 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 0.25% | 4.65% | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| 1952Q3–2024Q4 | 6.13% | 15.15% | 0.40 | 3.45 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 9.10% | 20.32% | 0.45 | 1.00 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −1.67% | 10.12% | −0.16 | −0.16 |
| 1952Q3–2024Q4 | 8.71% | 9.76% | 0.89 | 7.60 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 8.77% | 12.04% | 0.73 | 1.63 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −0.52% | 9.75% | −0.05 | −0.05 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.22 | −0.12 – 0.55 | 0.11 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.22 | −0.10 – 0.55 | 0.11 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.22 | −0.07 – 0.54 | 0.09 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.59 | 0.31 – 0.91 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.55 | 0.27 – 0.87 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.44 | 0.16 – 0.80 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.35 | 0.12 – 0.57 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.34 | 0.11 – 0.57 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.32 | 0.07 – 0.57 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.60 | 0.32 – 0.90 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.55 | 0.27 – 0.86 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.44 | 0.17 – 0.81 | <0.01 |