FirmAge · Info proxy · Barry and Brown (1984)
Firm age based on CRSP
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1927Q2 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
−1.96%
95% interval −4.18% to 0.26%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
−1.96%
95% interval −4.18% to 0.24%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
−1.96%
95% interval −4.21% to 0.24%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
−92% since 1927Q2 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1928Q3–2024Q4 | −1.44% | 9.06% | −0.16 | −1.57 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −2.62% | 20.87% | −0.13 | −0.28 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 5.91% | 15.63% | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| 1928Q3–2024Q4 | −2.10% | 8.73% | −0.24 | −2.36 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −4.24% | 17.67% | −0.24 | −0.54 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 6.13% | 24.10% | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| 1927Q2–2024Q4 | −1.99% | 10.57% | −0.19 | −1.86 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −5.90% | 22.09% | −0.27 | −0.60 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 12.98% | 9.52% | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| 1927Q2–2024Q4 | −2.96% | 10.23% | −0.29 | −2.86 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −7.20% | 17.76% | −0.41 | −0.91 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 4.79% | 17.87% | 0.27 | 0.27 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | −0.16 | −0.36 – 0.05 | 0.93 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | −0.15 | −0.36 – 0.05 | 0.93 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | −0.15 | −0.34 – 0.05 | 0.93 |
| 2026Q4 | −0.24 | −0.44 – −0.04 | 0.99 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | −0.24 | −0.44 – −0.04 | 0.99 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | −0.23 | −0.42 – −0.03 | 0.99 |
| 2026Q4 | −0.19 | −0.40 – 0.02 | 0.96 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | −0.18 | −0.39 – 0.02 | 0.96 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | −0.18 | −0.37 – 0.02 | 0.96 |
| 2026Q4 | −0.30 | −0.54 – −0.09 | 1.00 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | −0.30 | −0.52 – −0.09 | 1.00 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | −0.28 | −0.48 – −0.08 | 1.00 |