EarningsConsistency · Earnings growth · Alwathainani (2009)
Earnings consistency
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1953Q3 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
1.60%
95% interval −2.02% to 5.19%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
1.60%
95% interval −2.06% to 5.22%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
1.59%
95% interval −2.19% to 5.35%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+31% since 1953Q3 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 3.46% | 13.15% | 0.26 | 2.23 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 3.73% | 22.83% | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 34.29% | 24.85% | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 3.78% | 7.78% | 0.49 | 4.11 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 5.04% | 8.64% | 0.58 | 1.30 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 10.89% | 5.11% | 2.13 | 2.13 |
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 1.68% | 16.04% | 0.10 | 0.89 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −0.87% | 27.34% | −0.03 | −0.07 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −1.43% | 22.53% | −0.06 | −0.06 |
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 4.25% | 10.37% | 0.41 | 3.47 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 12.35% | 10.69% | 1.16 | 2.58 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 14.61% | 3.70% | 3.95 | 3.95 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.27 | 0.03 – 0.53 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.26 | 0.03 – 0.51 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.25 | 0.03 – 0.47 | 0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.53 | 0.25 – 0.83 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.50 | 0.24 – 0.77 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.43 | 0.19 – 0.65 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.10 | −0.13 – 0.32 | 0.19 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.10 | −0.13 – 0.32 | 0.19 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.09 | −0.13 – 0.31 | 0.20 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.56 | 0.21 – 0.98 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.52 | 0.20 – 0.88 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.42 | 0.17 – 0.66 | <0.01 |