ChNNCOA · Investment alt · Soliman (2008)

Change in Net Noncurrent Op Assets

Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window

Next quarter

2026Q4

0.78%

95% interval −2.80% to 3.80%

Next year

2026Q4–2027Q3

0.83%

95% interval −2.75% to 3.82%

Next five years

2026Q4–2031Q3

1.01%

95% interval −2.52% to 3.89%

Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+210% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Past performance, annualized

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.97%	7.85%	0.38	3.23
2020Q1–2024Q4	−1.56%	11.97%	−0.13	−0.29
2024Q1–2024Q4	8.75%	12.12%	0.72	0.72
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.66%	4.60%	0.58	4.91
2020Q1–2024Q4	−1.74%	7.51%	−0.23	−0.52
2024Q1–2024Q4	−6.03%	7.52%	−0.80	−0.80
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.07%	10.02%	0.21	1.76
2020Q1–2024Q4	−4.11%	15.34%	−0.27	−0.60
2024Q1–2024Q4	11.75%	3.11%	3.78	3.78
1952Q3–2024Q4	3.78%	6.61%	0.57	4.87
2020Q1–2024Q4	−0.81%	11.38%	−0.07	−0.16
2024Q1–2024Q4	−11.85%	9.81%	−1.21	−1.21

Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized

Window	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
2026Q4	0.30	−0.01 – 0.55	0.03
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.30	−<0.01 – 0.56	0.03
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.30	0.01 – 0.56	0.02
2026Q4	0.15	−0.32 – 0.65	0.32
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.16	−0.28 – 0.66	0.30
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.20	−0.17 – 0.66	0.21
2026Q4	0.08	−0.28 – 0.38	0.31
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.08	−0.26 – 0.38	0.30
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.10	−0.19 – 0.37	0.26
2026Q4	0.10	−0.37 – 0.62	0.38
2026Q4–2027Q3	0.12	−0.32 – 0.62	0.36
2026Q4–2031Q3	0.16	−0.19 – 0.62	0.26