ChAssetTurnover · Sales growth · Soliman (2008)
Change in Asset Turnover
Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1953Q3 to 2024Q4.
Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window
Next quarter
2026Q4
2.23%
95% interval −0.87% to 5.23%
Next year
2026Q4–2027Q3
2.26%
95% interval −0.87% to 5.25%
Next five years
2026Q4–2031Q3
2.37%
95% interval −0.89% to 5.36%
Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.
Cumulative market-adjusted return
+547% since 1953Q3 · log scale
Past performance, annualized
| Window | Mean | Vol. | Sharpe | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 2.32% | 8.25% | 0.28 | 2.37 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −3.87% | 9.42% | −0.41 | −0.92 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 1.94% | 12.17% | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 2.65% | 4.25% | 0.62 | 5.27 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 3.31% | 6.64% | 0.50 | 1.12 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | 3.32% | 3.86% | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 3.32% | 11.74% | 0.28 | 2.39 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | −0.97% | 14.53% | −0.07 | −0.15 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −2.82% | 5.73% | −0.49 | −0.49 |
| 1953Q3–2024Q4 | 2.97% | 5.29% | 0.56 | 4.74 |
| 2020Q1–2024Q4 | 1.72% | 7.53% | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| 2024Q1–2024Q4 | −1.58% | 7.86% | −0.20 | −0.20 |
Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized
| Window | Mean | 95% interval | P(neg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.20 | −0.11 – 0.46 | 0.10 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.20 | −0.10 – 0.46 | 0.09 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.20 | −0.08 – 0.46 | 0.08 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.56 | 0.33 – 0.79 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.56 | 0.32 – 0.79 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.54 | 0.28 – 0.79 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.19 | −0.07 – 0.45 | 0.08 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.19 | −0.07 – 0.45 | 0.08 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.19 | −0.06 – 0.44 | 0.07 |
| 2026Q4 | 0.47 | 0.23 – 0.72 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2027Q3 | 0.47 | 0.21 – 0.72 | <0.01 |
| 2026Q4–2031Q3 | 0.46 | 0.17 – 0.73 | <0.01 |