BrandInvest · Investment alt · Belo, Lin and Vitorino (2014)

Brand capital investment

Long minus short decile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1965Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per year, averaged over the window

Next quarter

2026Q4

−5.16%

95% interval −12.22% to 0.37%

Next year

2026Q4–2027Q3

−5.09%

95% interval −12.00% to 0.38%

Next five years

2026Q4–2031Q3

−4.78%

95% interval −11.25% to 0.46%

Forecast made 16 Sep 2026, conditioning on this portfolio's OAP returns, which end 2024Q4. The 7 quarters between then and 2026Q4 are unobserved and are integrated out under the model.

Cumulative market-adjusted return

−97% since 1965Q3 · log scale

Past performance, annualized

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1965Q3–2024Q4	−3.59%	16.55%	−0.22	−1.67
2020Q1–2024Q4	−12.08%	23.03%	−0.52	−1.17
2024Q1–2024Q4	−39.11%	17.00%	−2.30	−2.30
1965Q3–2024Q4	1.07%	20.50%	0.05	0.40
2020Q1–2024Q4	−4.60%	24.19%	−0.19	−0.43
2024Q1–2024Q4	−13.86%	29.23%	−0.47	−0.47
1965Q3–2024Q4	−4.11%	18.97%	−0.22	−1.67
2020Q1–2024Q4	−13.05%	23.61%	−0.55	−1.24
2024Q1–2024Q4	−36.14%	16.20%	−2.23	−2.23
1965Q3–2024Q4	−1.70%	23.18%	−0.07	−0.57
2020Q1–2024Q4	−4.35%	33.10%	−0.13	−0.29
2024Q1–2024Q4	−16.77%	44.30%	−0.38	−0.38

Forecast Sharpe ratio, annualized

Window	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
2026Q4	−0.31	−0.73 – 0.01	0.97
2026Q4–2027Q3	−0.29	−0.66 – 0.01	0.97
2026Q4–2031Q3	−0.24	−0.50 – 0.02	0.97
2026Q4	−0.14	−0.54 – 0.22	0.74
2026Q4–2027Q3	−0.12	−0.48 – 0.22	0.73
2026Q4–2031Q3	−0.07	−0.34 – 0.23	0.68
2026Q4	−0.27	−0.65 – 0.02	0.97
2026Q4–2027Q3	−0.26	−0.60 – 0.02	0.96
2026Q4–2031Q3	−0.23	−0.48 – 0.02	0.96
2026Q4	−0.15	−0.51 – 0.15	0.82
2026Q4–2027Q3	−0.14	−0.47 – 0.15	0.82
2026Q4–2031Q3	−0.11	−0.36 – 0.15	0.80